The Economy Within

Hi, Tom here.

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The global economy is making headlines—but let’s zoom in on the only economy you can actually control: yours.

Let’s get into it.

Everyone's talking about the economy, but let’s talk about yours.

The headlines scream recession, tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025—a recessionary path driven by trade policy shocks and mounting uncertainty. Every global leader is thinking about it. Every business owner is thinking about it. And people everywhere are making moves before the next round of tariffs kick in.

If you’re feeling tariff fatigue, you’re not alone.

While yesterday’s market action felt like a breath of fresh air and I’d love for the narrative to shift, the markets remain a cold and unforgiving place.

Markets don’t care what we want.

At their core, they’re giant math problems played out by humans—driven by fear and greed, and ultimately reliant on healthy, growing economies.

And our economy is under a microscope—for good reason.

You don’t need a PhD in economics to know what a great economy produces: prosperity. Or what a poor one produces: poverty. Economies in transition, as you’ve noticed, produce something else entirely: uncertainty.

But what kind of uncertainty?

• Will inflation chip away at your purchasing power?

• Is the nest egg you’ve built over years still safe?

• Will your business, your job, or your investments need to adapt—fast?

• And for those willing to lean in: what opportunities might come out of all this?

This is where the conversation shifts—from the global to the personal. Because whether you realize it or not, you are running your own economy.

Economies are just systems that produce outcomes, consumption, and resource allocation. You have your own system. Your own production, consumption—your own economy.

It’s not just your job or your portfolio. It’s how you earn, grow, allocate, and protect your capital—designed to support your values, your responsibilities, and your long-term freedom. If you’re in your 50s, you’ve spent 30 years refining yours.

Now is the perfect time to go under the hood and ensure your economy is built for the world ahead.

Why? Because of what’s at stake:

• Time with your family, traveling during the dog days of summer

• Picking up the tab for your aging parents once in a while

• Generously supporting organizations that need it

• Enjoying the quietness of your living room at the end of the day—content, secure, prosperous

These are the moments that define a life well lived—and they all depend on the strength of your personal economy.

Let’s take a stroll down memory lane and revisit econ 101, but this time, let’s zoom in on you, and your economy.

Remember, your economy is just the system you use to gather resources and spend them.

• Things are produced: You build. You close deals. You raise kids. You give back. You create value—at home, at work, and in your community.

• Things are bought: Assets, experiences, security, time. Every day, you’re deploying resources—sometimes for growth, sometimes for enjoyment, sometimes for legacy.

• Capital is allocated: Your surplus isn’t just parked—you put it to work. Stocks, real estate, munis, your business. The choices you make here shape not only your future, but the world around you.

• And there’s a system for it all: Routines, habits, the way you manage spending, investing, and risk. The way you plan for what’s next. Whether you realize it or not, you’ve built a system over time.

That’s your economy. It’s not theoretical. It’s real—and it’s operating at a scale you’ve worked hard to achieve.

While the world obsesses over the economy, I want you to be obsessed with your economy.

Let’s go one layer deeper.

Remember competitive advantages? Every strong economy—big or small—has advantages that separate the resilient from the fragile.

I’ve explained many times over the past few weeks that the US putting tariffs on Madagascar made little sense. The average Malagasy citizen earns about $500 per year (World Bank, 2023). Taking your family out to a nice dinner in any US metro can cost $250—half the average Malagasy citizen’s annual income. Put another way, the US produces far wealthier citizens than Madagascar.

Tariffs on Madagascar’s exports hurt a nation with little economic leverage and offer the US almost nothing to gain—a microcosm of today’s global tensions, where policy decisions often have disproportionate and unintended consequences for both sides.

We got here partially because the US has an incredibly strong economy full of competitive advantages: deep capital markets, innovative companies, a culture of entrepreneurship, and a bias toward freedom.

You don’t build that overnight. The same goes for you. You’ve spent years building your own advantages. Now is the time to protect them, grow them, and make them work even harder.

Here’s how:

• Optimize production: In every economy, production is the engine. It’s what creates value, drives income, and fuels growth. Your personal economy is no different. As you approach retirement, ask: Where will new value come from? If your paycheck is slowing down, how will you generate income? What skills, relationships, or strategies can help you produce in new ways—without overextending? Remember, knowledge compounds just like capital. Keep producing.

• Optimize cash flow: No economy survives without healthy cash flow—and yours won’t either. In the 2020s, with elevated asset prices and persistent inflation, dialing in your spending and income is more critical than ever. A 3.5% inflation rate over a 25-year retirement can quietly erode your plan. While market returns are out of your control, your spending habits and savings strategy are not. Your economy runs on cash flow—manage it like a veteran CFO.

• Invest better: In your personal economy, capital allocation is everything. How and where you invest determines whether your resources grow, stagnate, or vanish. So ask: Does your portfolio reflect today’s realities—or yesterday’s assumptions? Do you have conviction in your strategy, or are you just winging it? A healthy economy invests with purpose. Make sure yours does too.

• Refine your systems: Even the best-run economies crumble without infrastructure. Your routines, tools, decision-making process, and advisory team make up the operating system of your financial life. Is yours built for what’s ahead? Can it withstand surprises? Your personal economy doesn’t just need a plan—it needs a system that runs even when you’re not at 100%. Don’t leave this to chance. Build something that lasts.

These are not just abstract concepts—they are practical levers you can pull to strengthen your personal economy, regardless of what the headlines say.

Howard Marks said a year and a half ago that the world was in the midst of a “sea change.” Ray Dalio has been making the rounds talking about the history of empires, warning the US is headed toward a debt crisis. Meanwhile, next-gen entrepreneurs are building companies with AI that will change life on planet Earth.

And you, and I, are in the middle of it, managing, protecting, and growing our own economies.

The global economy isn’t built to make you rich.

It’s built to keep running. And every country, every company, is looking out for itself.

That’s why now is the perfect time to zoom in on your own system—how you earn, spend, invest, and protect what you’ve worked so hard to build.
In a world prioritizing self-preservation, you must do the same.

Ask yourself:

• Where are you strongest?

• Where are the cracks?

• What threats—or opportunities—are coming into view?

I’m asking these same questions myself—at Fjell, and in my own life.

Because the world is changing. Fast.
But this isn’t doom and gloom. Not even close.

Yes, I cringe when I see the dinner bill after taking my family of five out.
But I’m also blown away by what the next generation of entrepreneurs is building—the companies we'll invest in next, the ideas that will shape the future.

Economic advantage now goes to those who:

• Build resilient systems

• Spend with purpose

• Protect what they’ve earned

• Lean in when others pull back

Great economies aren’t always the biggest, loudest, or fastest.
The best ones solve real problems, for the people they serve—day after day, decade after decade.

So while the world obsesses over the economy…
Be obsessed with yours.

Because your economy is the only one that truly impacts your life.
Protect it. Refine it. Make it work for you.

Don't be a casualty of the economy.

Be the architect of your own.

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• BluePrint — Our one-time, flat-fee financial planning service. Get clarity, direction, and a custom strategy—without committing to a full advisory relationship. Ideal if you want professional guidance and a plan you can act on. Let’s start with a quick conversation.

• Bergen — Our premium wealth management service for individuals and families with $500K+ in liquid assets. We’ll build and manage a custom plan designed to create freedom, reduce complexity, and help you thrive—no matter what life throws your way. Let’s talk.

Hope this edition inspires you to build better.

Talk soon,

Tom