Market Mayhem

Hi, Tom here.

Thank you all for the incredible feedback on our name change—we’re just as excited about it as you are!

Over the past few months, I’ve asked hundreds of you what free resource would be most valuable, and I’m thrilled to announce that we’re offering a Complimentary Retirement Readiness Assessment . This is an exclusive opportunity to gain clarity on your retirement plans, but spots are extremely limited—details below.

Now, let’s dive into what’s happening in the world.

Worried about what this market means for your retirement?

You’re not alone. Markets are volatile, and if you’re nearing retirement, the stakes feel higher than ever. What happens if you face a storm like this without a paycheck coming in?

Here’s the good news: the fundamentals of retirement planning haven’t changed. But your plan needs to be strong, clear, and ready for today’s challenges.

That’s why we’re offering a Complimentary Retirement Readiness Assessment—a 20-minute call with our team at Fjell designed to help you gain clarity and confidence in your retirement plan.

Here’s what you’ll get:

• A review of your retirement goals and current plan

• A risk check tailored to today’s market conditions

• Clear next steps to strengthen your position—no matter what the market does

This is completely free, but we’re only opening 10 spots due to limited availability.

Click Here To Reserve Your Spot Now!

This is tough to write.

So much has been said about the markets since I last spoke with you—and for good reason. We’ve just lived through what will go down in history as one of the most volatile market swings ever.

• Thursday / Friday - pure carnage and mayhem from President Trump’s trade announcement.

• Monday morning brought a $2 trillion swing in minutes—a move so fast I thought my computer broke (no joke).

• Tuesday gave us the largest intraday volatility since 1978, with wild swings that made even seasoned traders feel seasick.

• Wednesday? One of the most epic rallies in market history—a day that will be studied for decades.

Every sage on Wall Street is being asked to decode what’s happening. Scott Bessent might be living out of his suit with how much screen time he’s getting.

We’ve been in a trade war for over a month now, but last Wednesday at 4 PM EST, everything changed. President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs—what he called “Liberation Day”—was like firing the starting gun on a new phase of market chaos.

Markets were caught off guard. Your portfolio was likely caught in the crossfire.

And while Wednesday’s rally did a lot to calm nerves: we’re not out of the woods yet.

Since last Thursday, the market has shifted gears—and fast.

If you remember my piece on the anatomy of bear markets from a few weeks ago, you’ll recall that bad markets don’t happen all at once; they unfold in phases.

Well, we just entered a new phase.

Before Thursday’s announcement, markets were treating tariffs as a run-of-the-mill correction—something annoying but manageable. But after the announcement? The narrative shifted: tariffs were being viewed as a recession-inducing event.

Here’s what that means:

• Corrections involve a 10% decline in stock values—annoying but survivable.

• Bear markets involve declines of around 20%—a tougher drop, but not always a sign that a recession is coming.

• Recessions, however, bring average drawdowns of 35%—and that’s when many Americans lose jobs and serious wealth gets wiped out.

Here’s a chart of S&P 500 drawdowns and recessions over the past 30 years.

You’ll notice the financial crisis was long and drawn out—because the entire financial system broke.

The pandemic? A sharp hit, but ultimately cushioned by trillions in government spending.

Now?
People are asking if global trade just broke.
They’re asking if we’ve already slipped into a recession.

In just days, sentiment shifted from “this trade war is manageable” to “did the system just crack?”

And this week revealed something else about investing in the 2020s: It’s easy when markets are calm—until it’s not. When volatility hits, it’s like driving through rush-hour traffic with no brakes.

We’re all asking the same question.

“What should I do?

Here’s my advice in market mayhem: stick to the fundamentals and don’t let emotions take the wheel. These four principles can help you navigate the storm:

1. Survival First

We’re navigating an economic war unlike anything we’ve seen before—but don’t lose sight of why you’re investing in the first place. Whether your goal is retirement, funding your grandkids’ education, or taking your spouse on that dream trip to New Zealand, remember that short-term turbulence shouldn’t change long-term objectives.

Now is not the time to be a hero with your portfolio or take unnecessary risks trying to outsmart the market. Survival comes first.

2. If You Can’t Move Fast – Don’t

Monday’s $2 trillion surge was followed by Wednesday’s $10 trillion move—making Monday look like child’s play by comparison. These rapid swings highlight how institutional investors, and their MIT built algos and $100m internet connections, thrive on this volatility. Here’s an updated 10-year chart of the VIX to show just how big—and fast—this move was.

Timing the market in huge volatility is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle—it maybe will work but can backfire spectacularly. Play to your strength: be okay being a long-term investor.

3. Stick to Your Strategy

Imagine planning a family ski trip to Colorado—you pack up the car and head west only to decide halfway through to detour south for barbecue in Austin instead. Your family would be irate and question your sanity. Similarly, if you’ve crafted an investment strategy designed for long-term success, now isn’t the time to abandon it.

The classic 60/40 portfolio has been criticized over the years but remains a cornerstone for millions of investors—and for good reason, it’s holding up. If your strategy was working before this volatility began, it will likely work again when things settle down.

4. Adjust Intelligently

Sometimes the best strategy is to stay put. Other times, it’s okay to make small, smart adjustments. Play some defense: If this volatility is stressing you (or your spouse) out, there’s nothing wrong with holding a little more cash than usual. Play some offense: Use opportunities like this to strengthen your long-term position:

• Tax-loss harvesting to offset gains

• Dollar-cost averaging instead of trying to time the bottom

• Rebalancing into undervalued areas

As Doug Kass wisely said:
“When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.”

The rules of the game are being rewritten right now—yet no one seems to know what game we’re playing.

So take a breath. Remember your why. Ask yourself:

• Why are you investing?

• Who are you investing for?

• What do you need your money to accomplish?

Whether your why is retiring in five years, selling your business in ten, or giving generously to causes close to your heart—let that anchor you.

Don’t let short-term emotions wreck long-term plans. Markets don’t owe us clarity—but they do reward discipline. In storms like this, your why is your anchor.

Hold onto it.

Two more ways I can help you:

• BluePrint — Our flat-fee financial planning service for clarity and direction, no matter what’s going on in the world. Perfect if you want professional advice without full asset management, on-going advice and implementation. Let’s start with a quick conversation.

• Bergen — Our premium wealth management service for individuals and families with $500,000+ in liquid assets. We’ll optimize your financial plan, navigate markets, take financial stress off your plate, and provide ongoing support, service and advice, regardless of what life brings your way. Let’s talk.

Hang in there.

Talk soon,

Tom