Hi everyone, Tom here! 👋 

Big news—we just hit 20,000 subscribers this morning! Huge milestone, and I can’t thank you enough for being part of this journey.

Join us next Wednesday at 10 AM CT for Portfolio Masterclass: How Portfolios Are Built—a behind-the-scenes look at how we construct investment portfolios. I’ll walk through three different $2M portfolios, breaking down their unique characteristics so you can invest smarter and with more confidence.

Let’s get into tariffs, trade wars, investing and what you need to do.

Rotting Away

I acutely remember the conversation with a client in early 2018.

We were discussing the massive piles of soybeans rotting away just outside Fargo.

Piles as big as houses, with no place to go.

We were in a trade war with China then, and the Chinese had just responded with a 25% tariff on a crop near and dear to North Dakota.

This move from China made our ag products suddenly undesirable with a stroke of a pen.

The demand for US soybeans plummeted.

Growers in our area had just become a casualty of a war.

An economic one.

This past weekend, the trade war escalated, with President Trump announcing a slew of tariffs and promises of more to come.

I've spoken to several people across the political spectrum this week, and everyone is unsure where this is heading.

Amidst the chaos, grumbling, lawsuits, anger, delight, and everything in between, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, had this to say on this issue.

"Get over it."

It's an interesting take from the man whose bank is the bank of the world's governments.

What he's really saying: Move on. This is happening, and we don't have any control over the outcome.

I'm not sure if that take is helpful, but let's be real: This is a tough time to invest when the narrative changes every two hours.

Let me offer you a perspective you haven't seen yet on this trade war.

Tar-IFS

Why are Mexico, Canada, and China getting hit with tariffs, what are tariffs, and what should I be doing with my portfolio?

Let me explain what's going on in plain English.

The new administration views that we have been in a trade war this whole time, with the US being taken advantage of by massive trade imbalances, causing jobs to go overseas, local US economies to suffer, and an overvalued dollar.

These tariff threats aren't the start of a "new trade war" but rather the US simply striking back.

Most journalists and economists reporting this don't believe tariffs are a good idea.

What to know the truth of it all?

They may be right.

They may be wrong.

The new Administration may be right.

They may be wrong.

Only history will tell, but now, this is a fast-moving, fluid series of events.

Over the past weekend, the Canadians had a pre-existing list of tariffs to strike back with, while the Mexicans didn't appear to have theirs ready.

Yet by Monday afternoon, Mexico had struck a deal, and later in the day, Canada and the US struck a deal to pause the implementation of tariffs.

Forbes said screw this and gave us a real-time "Trump Tariffs Live Updates" page on their website to keep us informed on the play-by-play.

But here's what I learned about tariffs last time around, in 2018: Tariffs might as well be renamed Tar-IFS.

No one knows:

• IF the tariffs will be implemented.

• IF there will be exceptions.

• IF they will work.

• IF they will affect your financial life.

You can see what I am saying here.

Now, like many financial things I write about—are tariffs bad? Depends. Are they good? Depends.

Tariffs are a tool.

But let's get into your action plan for this because you've got a portfolio of assets to oversee, retirements to fund, and mortgages to pay off.

Join us Wednesday at 10 AM CT for Portfolio Masterclass: How Portfolios Are Built— discover the traits of resilient portfolios and leave with actionable ideas to strengthen yours.

Your Gameplan: Strategy > Fear

A client emailed me over the weekend with a story on hedge fund short positions.

These managers don't see a clear short-term path ahead, so they hedged their risk.

These articles are everywhere; head to YouTube, and you'll see the same.

With all this action coming from Washington, it makes you feel like you need to act too then?

Here's our game plan at Fjell.

Go slow and move carefully.

Now is not the time to make massive moves in your portfolio because if Monday showed us anything, things can and will change rapidly.

Not only are markets dealing with the tariffs, but there's also the AI story with DeepSeek, the Fed's interest rate policy, and earnings season.

This Tariff spat matters, but it's not everything.

We've already repositioned our portfolios leading up to this, but we are slow and steady through this.

From that place, review your disaster plan.

Some of you may face the financial fire as many farmers did in 2018.

Go through your financial worst-case scenario and play it out. President Trump mentioned that America has to "feel some pain" to realign itself and put America first.

I don't know what that means for you if you are not a client of Fjell, but here’s what I would be trying to answer:

• What if you get laid off?

• What if the business you work for has to absorb the cost of slower growth or higher costs?

• What if the market goes down 20%?

Next, plan to take strategic action.

Once you understand what could happen, get ready to take action.

Think about what I wrote about last week on the importance of rebalancing.

If the markets sell off, consider tax-loss selling and Roth conversions.

This is the perfect time to focus on your strategy and not fear.

And finally, remember that all US Presidents deeply care about the stock market.

While healthy GDP numbers, unemployment rates, and job and wage growth are critical to a prosperous country, when was the last time you casually overheard a conversation about the labor participation rate?

Probably never.

But the markets?

They represent your financial future, my financial future, and hundreds of millions of Americans.

People need them to work, and every US President knows this.

Furthermore, every US President is partially judged by the market's performance during their tenure, and they want to go down in history as a President who made people wealthier.

We are living through the fog of an economic war this week.

Everyone is asking the same questions.

Everyone is wondering how this will end.

To help you through this, join me at our next Wealth Workshop this coming Tuesday on the very thing you are seeking to protect: your portfolio.

I will be breaking down three different $2m portfolios so you can better understand how different types of portfolios behave and act.

This will be super helpful for you, particularly in these noisy news cycles.

If you want to know how we build portfolios that can withstand times like these, check out our next webinar on Wednesday, February 12th, at 10 AM CT.

Register here

Onwards,

Tom