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Stocks Before and After the Midterms

Stocks Before and After the Midterms

Stronger returns followed midterm elections across every congressional outcome.

Jacob Radke
October 18, 2026 • Read Time: 1 minute

Stocks Before and After the Midterms

Across the 19 midterm elections from 1950 through 2022, the S&P 500 averaged a 3.8% price gain in the 12 months before Election Day.

This year's lead-up has been stronger, the index gained 16.1% over the 12 months through October 15, with the election still ahead.

S&P 500 price returns in the year before 19 midterm elections, grouped by the subsequent congressional outcome. Republican sweeps averaged 4.1%, split Congress 3.2%, and Democratic sweeps 3.9%. A separate 2026 bar shows a 16.1% trailing-year gain through October 15, with the outcome pending. Dividends excluded.

In the 12 months after those elections, the average gain was 15.1%. All 19 were positive, spanning Republican sweeps, Democratic sweeps and split control of Congress.

S&P 500 price returns over the 12 months after 19 midterm elections from 1950 through 2022. Republican control of both chambers averaged 17.1% across 4 elections; split Congress averaged 12.4% across 4; Democratic control of both chambers averaged 15.4% across 11. Dividends excluded.

The moral of the story is that markets value a clearer policy outlook once an election is settled, no matter which party actually wins.

Until next week,

Jacob